What Aaron Nola's Rough Start To 2023 May Mean

ATLANTA. GA - Prior to the season Phillies and “Ace” Aaron Nola reportedly had talks regarding a contract in the $120-$175 million dollar range. However, Nola opted to bet on himself and play out the 2023 campaign before making a final decision on his contractual future. Now just under two months into the year, it seems Nola could have made a fatal decree.

Since being selected 7th overall in the first round by the Phillies back in 2014, Aaron Nola seemed destined to star atop the Fightins’ rotation. After quickly traversing through the Phillies minor league system with a low two ERA in 2014 and ‘15, Noles made his major league debut in late 2015 and still remains the longest active player on the Phillies roster. In nine major league seasons, Nola has amassed an 82-65 mark with a 3.64 ERA and 1.12 WHIP along with an astounding 1433 Strikeouts.

For the majority of Nola’s time as a Phillie, he has been a steady presence at the top of a rotation that’s been largely in shambles since the departure of Cole Hamels in 2015. Disregarding an off year in 2021, Nola has never batted an eye as he started seven consecutive opening days leading into this season.

In 2023, Nola is boasting some of the worst stats of his career; 4.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, and 2.0 BB/9. And it all avowedly began on opening day as the Phils faced off with the Texas Rangers. After starting the game with a quick first three innings, Nola blew up allowing five runs in what would turn out to be a nine-run fourth for Texas. The LSU product finished the day pitching only 3.2 innings on 72 pitches while the Phils went on to lose the game 11-7.

Nola’s struggles promptly continued into the Phils next few series, he’d allow 4-3-2-4 runs in the next four games only making it through seven innings just once. During that April stretch, the Phils Ace’s ERA would fall to only 5.40 with a FIP hovering just over four. Luckily Nola would catch a break as the Phils headed to face the Houston Astros, in what would turn out to be his best game to date. In 8.0 innings of work, Nola allowed just one run on three hits and no walks as the Phillies walked away with a 3-1 win over the defending World Series Champions.

The right-hander’s success would be short-lived however as he proceeded his high-heat night with a couple of four-run stinkers against the Dodgers and Rockies, both of which the Phils would fail to win. And now after the Phils most recent disappointing 8-5 loss to the Atlanta Braves, during which Nola allowed five runs on eight hits in just six innings it seems fan, media, and organizational confidence in “Bayou Kid” has hit an all-time low.

As the Phillies take a look around the rest of their rotation to see guys like Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker, and Ranger Suarez, all struggling along with the aforementioned Nola it gives the club little incentive to throw big bucks at the struggling Lousiana product. The entire Phils rotation has struggled to put much of a product on the field all season, though as the old cliche goes “it is still early”. It is indeed still early, as the Phils have yet to play 50 games this year. This means there is still obviously a lot of time for Nola, the Phils pitching, and the entire Phillies team to turn it around.

To this point in the season, the Phillies sit at 23-27, now eight full games back of the division-leading Braves and 2.5 games out of the final NL Wildcard spot. And while the rotation has been a huge factor in the team’s early struggles this year, it has been the team's two-way inconsistencies that have really stuck the needle in their side during the early going. For every time it seems that the offense is getting it going, there’s another bad out from a starter or a late-inning bullpen collapse. But when the pitching is on their game the offense can’t hit for a lick. And while no stat book or analyst can explain the up and down tendencies of a Baseball team, one thing we can all point our finger at is a guy like Aaron Nola and the Phillies rotation in general, a group that was once projected to be a top-5 unit in all of Baseball is now statistically one of the worst, that’s an issue because that is not how it’s supposed to be.

In the meantime, you can catch the Phillies once again tonight at 7:20 pm EST as they face off with the Atlanta Braves once again on NBC 10 and MLBN. Taijuan Walker will step to the hill looking to get back on track after a couple of lousy outings.